Livermore Trading Agent — Speedrun SR007

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<h4 class="mono">Livermore Trading Agent</h4>

# Timeless strategies.<br/><span class="dim">Modern execution.</span>

<p style="margin-top:1.4em; max-width:960px; font-size:0.68em; line-height:1.5">
The patterns Jesse Livermore traded in 1929 still work in 2026 — they're just <em>too fast and too many</em> for any human to scan. We bring that <b>timeless hidden knowledge</b> to your phone: AI <b>detects</b> the pattern at tick speed, <b>scores</b> it with a plain-English verdict, <b>filters</b> by your per-symbol rules, and <b>acts</b> through your broker.
Per-stock risk calibration. Earnings-aware. Flash-crash and stop-hunt defense. <b>Just sit and watch</b> — autopilot with nightly self-learning.
</p>

<p style="margin-top:1.6em">
<span class="pill indigo"><span class="dot"></span>a16z Speedrun · SR007</span>
<span class="pill up"><span class="dot"></span>Working prototype · production rails</span>
<span class="pill subtle">2 co-founders · eng + design</span>
</p>

</div>

---

<h4>The problem</h4>
<h2>Retail loses <span class="down">−6.5%/yr</span> on average.</h2>

Not because they pick bad names. Because the **edge they need lives in seconds**, and retail tools live in minutes.

By the time the chart confirms, the move is gone. By the time a Discord screenshot loads, the fill is bad. So they either freeze, or chase — and the math compounds against them.

The institutions that beat them aren't smarter. They have **real-time detection, calibrated rules, and pre-built orders**. We're shipping that same architecture to the operator on their phone.

<p class="muted" style="margin-top:1em; font-size:0.55em; max-width:520px">
Sources: Barber & Odean / TAQ retail studies · day-trader cohorts net negative even before fees.
</p>

</div>

<div class="card" style="font-size:0.6em; padding:18px 20px">
<h4 style="margin-bottom:14px">The three retail handicaps</h4>
<div style="display:flex; flex-direction:column; gap:14px; line-height:1.5">
<div>
<span class="pill down"><span class="dot"></span>LATENCY</span>
<div style="margin-top:6px; font-size:0.92em">Chart shows it after the move. The 50% that mattered is already priced in.</div>
</div>
<div>
<span class="pill down"><span class="dot"></span>EMOTION</span>
<div style="margin-top:6px; font-size:0.92em">No pre-placed stops or targets. Exit decisions made under P&L stress.</div>
</div>
<div>
<span class="pill down"><span class="dot"></span>STATIC RULES</span>
<div style="margin-top:6px; font-size:0.92em">A <span>$</span>300 stock and a <span>$</span>12 stock get the same stop. Volatility regimes ignored.</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>

</div>

<div class="footer"><span>Problem · why retail loses</span><span>02 / 08</span></div>

---

<h4>The insight</h4>
<h2>Next tick is 50/50. <span class="dim">Inventory exhaustion isn't.</span></h2>

<p style="font-size:0.62em; max-width:1080px; margin-top:0.2em">
The market is random <em>most of the time</em>. The brief moments when one side runs out of inventory — the patterns Livermore catalogued a century ago — aren't. Price <em>has to</em> relocate to find the other side. We detect <b>5 of those patterns live today</b>, at tick speed, per-symbol calibrated.
</p>

<div class="card glow-up" style="padding:14px 14px">
<div class="label up">● P01 · OPEN</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.65em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Open Spike</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Outsized opening volume at a key reference level, with a held follow-through bar.</p>
</div>

<div class="card glow-warn" style="padding:14px 14px">
<div class="label warn">● P02 · REVERSAL</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.65em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Capitulation Reversal</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Panic volume with wick rejection — late sellers exhausted, no one left to push down.</p>
</div>

<div class="card glow-up" style="padding:14px 14px">
<div class="label up">● P03 · BOUNCE</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.65em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Volume Bounce</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Oversold tag of a support zone reclaimed on heavy volume — the Livermore Bounce.</p>
</div>

<div class="card glow-indigo" style="padding:14px 14px">
<div class="label indigo">● P04 · EARNINGS</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.65em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Post-Earnings Continuation</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Day-after-earnings gap-and-go — Livermore's <em>pivotal point</em>, modernized.</p>
</div>

<div class="card glow-warn" style="padding:14px 14px">
<div class="label warn">● P05 · TREND</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.65em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Trend-Day Continuation</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Sustained intraday breakout after 10:30 ET — the continuation pivotal point.</p>
</div>

</div>

<p class="muted" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:1em"><b style="color:var(--fg)">5 patterns live · 562 calibrated tickers</b> · daily-bar scanners (Closing Print, Volume Dry-Up) in research pipeline · per-stock calibration retuned nightly.</p>

</div>

<div class="footer"><span>Insight · where the edge lives</span><span>03 / 08</span></div>

---

<h4>The product</h4>
<h2>Detect → Score → Filter → Act.</h2>

<div>

<div class="card" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label">01 · DETECT</div>
<div style="font-size:0.6em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Tick scanner</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.45">562 stocks scanned tick-by-tick. 5 patterns evaluated at every bar close. Bad feed prints rejected before scoring.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:6px">~1s</div>
</div>

<div class="card" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label">02 · SCORE</div>
<div style="font-size:0.6em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Verdict + R:R</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.45">AI explains <em>why</em>: setup, level, target, risk/reward, earnings context. Card is actionable instantly — explanation streams in.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:6px">~1.2s</div>
</div>

<div class="card" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label">03 · FILTER</div>
<div style="font-size:0.6em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Per-symbol rules</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.45">Auto-exec, position cap, cooldown — all set per stock. You define the rules; the system enforces them.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:6px">instant</div>
</div>

<div class="card glow-up" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label up">04 · ACT</div>
<div style="font-size:0.6em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Confirm-tap + autopilot</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.45">Schwab OAuth. Stops and targets pre-placed, sized to each stock's volatility. <b>Confirm-tap</b> live; <b>autopilot</b> in alpha.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:6px"><500ms <span class="warn">· autopilot alpha</span></div>
</div>

</div>

<p class="muted" style="font-size:0.52em; margin-top:1em; line-height:1.5">
End-to-end loop: <b style="color:var(--fg)">tick → signal → confirm-tap → broker fill → outcome trains tomorrow's model</b>. Under 3 seconds, explained in plain English. Whether you take the trade or skip it, the outcome compounds tomorrow's calibration.
</p>

</div>

<div class="signal-card" style="align-self:center">
<div class="sc-head">
<div class="meta">
<div class="tlogo" style="background:linear-gradient(135deg,#52da8d,#22a06d)">NB</div>
<div>
<div class="ticker">NBIS</div>
<div class="co">Nebius Group N.V.</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="score hi"><b>87</b><span>score</span></div>
</div>
<div class="sc-body">
<div>
<div class="sc-price">$207.27 <span class="chg" style="color:var(--up)">+15.72%</span></div>
<div class="sc-target" style="margin-top:6px"><span style="color:var(--up)">↗</span> Buy to target: <span class="v">$216.60</span> <span style="color:var(--up)">+4.50%</span></div>
</div>
<div style="padding:10px 12px; background:rgba(98,92,247,0.08); border:1px solid rgba(98,92,247,0.25); border-radius:10px; font-size:11px; line-height:1.5; color:var(--fg-60)">
<span class="label indigo" style="font-size:0.42em; margin-bottom:4px">CLAUDE VERDICT · NARRATION</span><br/>
<em style="color:var(--fg)">"Outsized opening-bar volume clearing yesterday's high. Watching for a failed retest at the breakout level."</em>
</div>
<div class="sc-foot">
<div class="sc-tags">
<span class="pill subtle">Open spike</span>
<span class="pill subtle">Vol 5.2×</span>
</div>
<span class="mono dim" style="font-size:11px">2m ago</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>

</div>

<div class="footer"><span>Product · the closed loop</span><span>04 / 08</span></div>

---

<h4>What makes it different</h4>
<h2>Built for the operator, <span class="dim">not the dashboard.</span></h2>

<div class="card glow-up">
<div class="label up">FAST REACTION</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Tick to card in seconds</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">1-min and tick granularity, not 5-min refresh. We fire <em>at</em> the inventory-exhaustion moment — competitors fire after the chart confirms.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px"><b>~1s</b> detect · <b><500ms</b> execute</div>
</div>

<div class="card glow-indigo">
<div class="label indigo">PER-STOCK CALIBRATION</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Risk sized to each name</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Stops and targets sized to each stock's own <b>volatility and price action</b> — a <span>$</span>300 name doesn't get the same stop as a <span>$</span>12 name. The tuner refits exit geometry nightly from real outcomes.</p>
<div class="mono indigo" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px">per-stock · retuned nightly</div>
</div>

<div class="card glow-warn">
<div class="label warn">EARNINGS-AWARE</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Pauses where it should</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Steps aside <b>±1 day around earnings</b>, retunes targets when it does fire. Pattern confirmation requires a <b>held retest</b> — no chasing the gap.</p>
<div class="mono warn" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px">earnings-aware · held retest</div>
</div>

<div class="card glow-down">
<div class="label down">ANTI-STOP DEFENSE</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Flash-crash + fakeout guards</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Bad-data filter rejects phantom prints. Held-retest gate kills <b>market-maker stop hunts</b>. Exits live on the broker — <b>not on your phone</b>.</p>
<div class="mono down" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px">bad-data filter · broker-side exits</div>
</div>

<div class="card glow-up">
<div class="label up">SMART PROFIT PROTECTION</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Trailing + breakeven, server-side</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Trailing stops, breakeven moves, partial exits, time stops. All <b>broker-managed</b> — survives app close, device sleep, network drop.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px">phone off · profit protected</div>
</div>

<div class="card glow-indigo">
<div class="label indigo">JUST SIT AND WATCH</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Autopilot, self-learning</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55">Above your threshold, autopilot fires automatically. Every night the tuner retrains thresholds and exit rules on both filled and skipped signals. <b>The longer it runs, the better it gets.</b></p>
<div class="mono indigo" style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px">confirm-tap live · autopilot in alpha</div>
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<div class="footer"><span>Differentiators · the operator surface</span><span>05 / 08</span></div>

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<h4>Strategies & Discovery</h4>
<h2>5 live patterns. <span class="dim">Discover more. Build your own.</span></h2>

<div class="card glow-up">
<div class="label up">PATTERN LIBRARY · LIVE</div>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:10px; line-height:1.85">
<span class="up">●</span> <b>Open Spike</b> · capitulation reversal at market open<br/>
<span class="up">●</span> <b>Capitulation Reversal</b> · panic-volume wick rejection<br/>
<span class="up">●</span> <b>Volume Bounce</b> · oversold + S/R reclaim with committed volume<br/>
<span class="up">●</span> <b>Post-Earnings Continuation</b> · day-after gap-and-go<br/>
<span class="up">●</span> <b>Trend-Day Continuation</b> · 10:30 ET sustained-run breakout
</p>
<div style="border-top:1px solid var(--stroke); margin-top:12px; padding-top:10px">
<div class="label">DAILY-BAR + RESEARCH PIPELINE</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.55">+ Closing Print · Volume Dry-Up · Consecutive Up-Streak in the research pipeline. Promoted to live only after walk-forward validation.</p>
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<div class="card glow-indigo">
<div class="label indigo">DISCOVERY · LIVE</div>
<h3 style="font-size:0.7em; font-weight:600; margin-top:6px">Strategy discovery, per stock</h3>
<p style="font-size:0.5em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55"><code>/discover</code> surfaces <b>which strategies work for which stocks</b>, tested against tick-level price history. Promoted to live only after walk-forward validation + 4-week stability check.</p>
<div style="border-top:1px solid var(--stroke); margin-top:12px; padding-top:10px">
<div class="label indigo">BUILD YOUR OWN</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.55">Generic strategy framework — any (entry rule, exit rule, risk rule) becomes a backtestable, deployable strategy with full P&L attribution.</p>
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<div class="card glow-warn" style="margin-top:14px; padding:14px 20px">
<div class="label warn">ACCURATE BACKTEST · TICK-LEVEL · RULE-EXACT</div>
<div style="display:grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr 1fr; gap:18px; margin-top:8px">

<div>
<div style="color:var(--fg); font-size:0.58em; font-weight:600">Replay against real history</div>
<p style="font-size:0.44em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.5">No rules go live on hunches. Every threshold change replays against <b>143M+ ticks of real history</b> with the exact rule that would have fired live.</p>
</div>

<div>
<div style="color:var(--fg); font-size:0.58em; font-weight:600">Walk-forward validation</div>
<p style="font-size:0.44em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.5">Weekly per-stock optimizer ranks thresholds out-of-sample. Promotion to live requires <b>4 weeks of stability</b>, not a one-shot win.</p>
</div>

<div>
<div style="color:var(--fg); font-size:0.58em; font-weight:600">Win/loss forensics</div>
<p style="font-size:0.44em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.5">Every signal — taken or skipped — has its <b>best-case and worst-case price excursion</b> logged. Weekly drift report flags regressions before users see them.</p>
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<div class="footer"><span>Strategies · 5 live · discover · build</span><span>06 / 08</span></div>

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<h4>Moat & market</h4>
<h2>Compounding edges · <span class="up">$35M ARR</span> beachhead.</h2>

<div>

<div class="card glow-up" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label up">EDGE 01</div>
<div style="font-size:0.62em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Real-time sensitivity</div>
<p style="font-size:0.44em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.5">Tick-level detection on 562 tickers. Competitors poll on the minute or refresh on the bar — we fire <em>at</em> the exhaustion moment.</p>
<div class="mono up" style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px">~1s detect-to-card</div>
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<div class="card glow-indigo" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label indigo">EDGE 02</div>
<div style="font-size:0.62em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Self-learning loop</div>
<p style="font-size:0.44em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.5">Every signal — taken <em>or skipped</em> — feeds the nightly tuner. <b>143M ticks of history</b>, weekly per-stock optimizer, autonomous research engine.</p>
<div class="mono indigo" style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px">retrains nightly</div>
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<div class="card glow-warn" style="padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label warn">EDGE 03</div>
<div style="font-size:0.62em; font-weight:600; margin-top:4px">Tesla-FSD compounding</div>
<p style="font-size:0.44em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.5"><b>Confirm-tap</b> live; <b>autopilot</b> in alpha. Same arc Tesla rode 2017 → 2024 — every drive trained the next model.</p>
<div class="mono warn" style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:6px">confirm-tap → autopilot</div>
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<p class="muted" style="font-size:0.52em; margin-top:1em; max-width:680px"><b style="color:var(--fg)">Every signal — taken or skipped — trains tomorrow's calibration.</b> Static-rule competitors don't have this curve. The longer we run, the wider the moat.</p>

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<div>

<div class="grid-3" style="gap:8px">
<div class="card" style="padding:10px 12px">
<div class="label">FREE</div>
<div class="metric" style="font-size:1.3em; margin-top:4px">$0</div>
<p style="font-size:0.4em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.4">Read-only · 5 signals/day</p>
</div>
<div class="card glow-up" style="padding:10px 12px">
<div class="label up">REFLEX</div>
<div class="metric up" style="font-size:1.3em; margin-top:4px">$59<span style="font-size:0.45em; opacity:0.7">/mo</span></div>
<p style="font-size:0.4em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.4">Confirm-tap · AI explanation · position mgmt</p>
</div>
<div class="card glow-indigo" style="padding:10px 12px">
<div class="label indigo">AUTOPILOT</div>
<div class="metric indigo" style="font-size:1.3em; margin-top:4px">$229<span style="font-size:0.45em; opacity:0.7">/mo</span></div>
<p style="font-size:0.4em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.4">Rule-gated autopilot · equities + options</p>
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<div class="card glow-up" style="margin-top:10px; padding:12px 14px">
<div class="label up">BEACHHEAD · YEAR 2</div>
<div style="font-size:0.55em; margin-top:6px; line-height:1.4"><b>50K paying users × $59/mo</b> = <span class="metric up" style="font-size:1.3em">$35.4M ARR</span></div>
<div style="border-top:1px solid var(--stroke); margin-top:10px; padding-top:8px; font-size:0.5em; line-height:1.4"><b>LTV <span>$</span>1,416 / CAC <span>$</span>90 = <span class="up">15.7×</span></b><br/><span class="muted" style="font-size:0.85em">24mo retention × <span>$</span>59 Reflex base · Autopilot upsell upside not included</span></div>
<div style="border-top:1px solid var(--stroke); margin-top:8px; padding-top:8px; font-size:0.42em; line-height:1.4; color:var(--muted)"><b style="color:var(--fg)">+ broker referral revenue</b> — Schwab Advisor Network · Public.com partnership · <span>$</span>50–200 per funded account.</div>
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<div class="footer"><span>Moat & market · compounding curve</span><span>07 / 08</span></div>

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<h4>The ask</h4>
<h2>$1M pre-seed · <span class="dim">12 months to scaled launch.</span></h2>

<div>

<div class="card card-2" style="padding:14px 16px">
<div style="display:flex; align-items:center; gap:10px">
<div class="tlogo" style="background:linear-gradient(135deg,#52da8d,#22a06d); width:32px; height:32px; border-radius:9px; font-size:11px">EK</div>
<div>
<div class="label">CO-FOUNDER · CEO/CTO</div>
<div style="font-size:0.5em; font-weight:600; margin-top:2px">Evgeniy Konnov</div>
</div>
</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:10px; line-height:1.55">
Background in real-time event monitoring at scale — high-volume event streams, anomaly detection, calibrated thresholds. <b>Same architecture, different domain.</b> Built the full stack: Schwab integration, options data, position management, tick database, self-learning tuner.
</p>
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<div class="card card-2" style="padding:14px 16px">
<div style="display:flex; align-items:center; gap:10px">
<div class="tlogo" style="background:linear-gradient(135deg,#a78bfa,#625cf7); color:white; width:32px; height:32px; border-radius:9px; font-size:11px">AK</div>
<div>
<div class="label indigo">CO-FOUNDER · PRODUCT & DESIGN</div>
<div style="font-size:0.5em; font-weight:600; margin-top:2px">Alex Konnov · UI/UX lead</div>
</div>
</div>
<p style="font-size:0.45em; margin-top:10px; line-height:1.55">
Product designer with deep UI/UX background — owns the consumer surface, mobile-first design language, onboarding flow, signal-card visual system. <b>Translates engineering primitives into a product retail will open every morning.</b>
</p>
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<p style="font-size:0.46em; margin-top:8px; line-height:1.55; color:var(--fg-60)">
<b style="color:var(--fg)">Detecting an unusual price move is the same problem as detecting a service outage.</b> Real-time monitoring infrastructure pointed at a market data feed — paired with a product designer who makes it tap-ready.
</p>

<div class="card" style="margin-top:12px; padding:12px 16px">
<div class="label up">WHAT THE MONEY DOES</div>
<div style="display:grid; grid-template-columns:auto 1fr; gap:6px 14px; margin-top:6px; font-size:0.46em; line-height:1.5">
<div class="mono up" style="font-weight:500">2 eng</div><div>Mobile (iOS/Android) + onboarding + payment rails</div>
<div class="mono up" style="font-weight:500"><span>$</span> legal</div><div>Securities counsel · publisher → RIA path · broker partnerships</div>
<div class="mono up" style="font-weight:500">~12mo</div><div>Runway to 5K paying users · validate LTV curve · Wave-1 broker pilot</div>
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<div class="signal-card indigo" style="align-self:start; --glow:rgba(98,92,247,0.22)">
<div class="sc-head">
<div class="meta">
<div class="score" style="background:rgba(98,92,247,0.12); border-color:rgba(98,92,247,0.30); color:var(--indigo-2); width:54px; height:54px; border-radius:14px"><b style="font-size:18px">SR7</b><span style="color:var(--indigo-2); opacity:0.7">cohort</span></div>
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<div class="ticker indigo" style="font-size:15px; color:var(--indigo-2)">LIVERMORE</div>
<div class="co">a16z Speedrun · cohort 7</div>
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<div class="sc-body">
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<div class="label">RAISING</div>
<div class="metric indigo" style="font-size:36px; margin-top:4px">$1,000,000</div>
<div class="sc-target" style="margin-top:8px"><span class="indigo">→</span> Pre-seed · SAFE · standard terms</div>
</div>
<div style="border-top:1px solid var(--stroke); padding-top:10px">
<div class="label">CLOSE</div>
<div style="font-size:0.55em; margin-top:4px; line-height:1.5"><b>Working prototype</b> on Schwab production rails. <b>5 patterns live</b>, per-stock calibrated. Discovery UI and autopilot in alpha. Self-learning loop running nightly. <b>The architecture is proven; the round funds the consumer wrapper.</b></div>
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<div style="display:flex; align-items:center; justify-content:space-between; padding-top:6px; flex-wrap:wrap; gap:6px">
<span class="pill indigo"><span class="dot"></span>READY TO SHIP</span>
<span class="mono dim" style="font-size:11px">apply by 2026-05-17</span>
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<div class="footer"><span class="live">Ask · Speedrun SR007 due 2026-05-17</span><span>08 / 08</span></div>